[US-AI반도체] 06/08 Wall St. Recap

NVIDIA is currently at a critical juncture characterized by high market volatility and intense anticipation surrounding its upcoming earnings report. While the partnership with Foxconn underscores the company’s long-term strategic expansion into Agentic AI and Physical AI—solidifying its role as the backbone of industrial automation—the stock is grappling with conflicting valuation signals. Investors are currently weighing the potential for continued hyper-growth against concerns over stretched multiples and the sustainability of current capital expenditure trends among hyperscalers. The immediate price action will likely be dictated by the company’s ability to exceed aggressive consensus estimates and provide clear guidance on the Blackwell ramp-up.

AMD is currently navigating a pivotal transition as the market shifts from a GPU-centric AI narrative toward a broader CPU Renaissance. The emergence of Agentic AI is driving demand for high-performance computing architectures that prioritize latency and complex reasoning, areas where AMD’s EPYC and Ryzen processors are increasingly competitive.

While Nvidia’s “Vera” CPU poses a long-term competitive threat in the data center, AMD’s commitment to long-term platform longevity—evidenced by the AM5 socket support through 2029—solidifies its ecosystem stickiness and customer loyalty. By diversifying its portfolio beyond pure AI accelerators and strengthening its footprint in both consumer and enterprise segments, AMD is well-positioned to capture sustained growth as the AI semiconductor landscape evolves toward more heterogeneous computing environments.

Broadcom (AVGO) is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between robust AI-driven growth and market sensitivity regarding forward guidance. While the company continues to benefit from secular tailwinds in AI networking chips and strategic partnerships with hyperscalers like Google (TPU development), recent price action reflects investor anxiety over valuation premiums. The divergence between strong quarterly performance and cautious guidance suggests that while the long-term thesis remains intact, the stock is entering a period of short-term volatility as the market recalibrates its expectations for future earnings growth.

Arm is currently positioned at the epicenter of the AI 2.0 transition, shifting from a mobile-centric architecture to a dominant force in high-performance computing. The collaboration with Microsoft to launch Arm-based Windows PCs represents a critical structural shift, challenging the long-standing x86 hegemony and opening a massive new Total Addressable Market (TAM) in the laptop and workstation segments.

While regulatory scrutiny from the FTC regarding Arm’s vertical integration into direct chip design poses a potential long-term risk, the market is currently prioritizing the company’s aggressive royalty revenue growth and its indispensable role in the NVIDIA-led AI ecosystem. Bernstein’s bullish price target reflects confidence in Arm’s ability to capture significant value as the industry pivots toward power-efficient, AI-optimized architectures.

ASML currently faces a complex landscape characterized by robust structural demand and geopolitical headwinds. While the CEO’s outlook confirms that the AI boom continues to drive a supply-demand imbalance that favors ASML’s long-term order book, the company is simultaneously navigating increased scrutiny regarding its export controls.

The claims from Huawei regarding potential advancements in lithography-free manufacturing represent a long-term competitive threat, though industry consensus remains skeptical of their ability to achieve high-yield, mass-market production without EUV technology. Furthermore, ASML’s strategic pivot toward geographical diversification—evidenced by its support for the Indian semiconductor ecosystem—is a prudent move to mitigate supply chain risks and align with global “China+1” manufacturing strategies. Investors should monitor whether these geopolitical shifts and alternative manufacturing claims impact ASML’s dominant market share in the high-end logic segment.