[US-AI반도체] 06/15 Wall St. Recap

NVIDIA (NVDA) continues to demonstrate robust fundamental strength, underscored by upward revisions in earnings guidance and proactive capital allocation strategies, including share buybacks and dividend increases. Despite recent short-term price volatility, institutional sentiment remains bullish, with major financial institutions like Bank of America identifying the company as a top pick due to the sustained, long-term expansion of AI infrastructure spending. While current valuation metrics present a debate between growth potential and premium pricing, the company’s dominant market position in the GPU and data center segments provides a strong floor for long-term value creation.

AMD is strategically diversifying its revenue streams beyond the volatile consumer PC market by aggressively expanding into the embedded x86 market, targeting high-growth sectors such as automotive, robotics, and healthcare. Furthermore, the company’s commitment to a massive 15 trillion KRW investment in the Taiwanese semiconductor ecosystem signals a long-term structural effort to fortify its supply chain and accelerate its competitive positioning against NVIDIA in the AI accelerator space. These initiatives, coupled with recent analyst upgrades, reflect growing institutional confidence in AMD’s ability to sustain market share gains and technological leadership through 2029.

Broadcom (AVGO) continues to demonstrate strong momentum, driven primarily by its strategic expansion in AI networking chips and its deepening partnership with Google TPU infrastructure. The recent surge in share price reflects investor confidence in the company’s ability to capitalize on the secular growth of generative AI and high-performance computing. While the stock has experienced a significant rally of 84% over the past year, the company’s robust earnings growth and dominant position in custom silicon design suggest that the valuation remains supported by fundamental tailwinds rather than mere speculation. Investors should monitor upcoming earnings reports to assess whether the current growth trajectory can sustain these premium multiples.

The recent developments surrounding Arm present a complex tug-of-war between strategic expansion and regulatory headwinds.

On the positive side, the potential shift toward in-house AI chip development and the integration of NVIDIA RTX technology into the Windows PC ecosystem underscore Arm’s ambition to evolve beyond a pure-play IP licensing model. This transition is critical for capturing higher value in the burgeoning AI hardware market. Furthermore, institutional interest from prominent investors like Stanley Druckenmiller signals confidence in Arm’s long-term positioning within the semiconductor value chain.

However, these gains are tempered by significant antitrust scrutiny from the FTC. Investigations into Arm’s CPU licensing practices pose a material risk to its business model, which relies on maintaining an open and neutral ecosystem. If regulators force changes to their licensing terms, it could disrupt the company’s revenue stability and its collaborative relationships with major foundries like TSMC and Samsung. Investors should monitor whether these regulatory pressures stifle Arm’s ability to pivot toward becoming a vertically integrated AI player.

ASML continues to benefit from the structural tailwinds of the AI-driven semiconductor supercycle. Despite geopolitical headwinds and competitive posturing from players like Huawei, ASML maintains an insurmountable technological moat in EUV lithography, which remains the critical bottleneck for advanced node production.

Furthermore, the strategic investment in Invisix highlights ASML’s proactive approach to diversifying its portfolio into next-generation metrology. By addressing the inspection challenges of sub-2nm processes, the company is effectively securing its long-term dominance beyond traditional lithography. While emerging technologies like photonics and alternative manufacturing claims present long-term monitoring points, ASML’s current order backlog and essential role in the global supply chain remain robust.