[US-AI반도체] 05/25 Wall St. Recap

NVIDIA (NVDA) continues to demonstrate robust fundamental strength, underscored by its recent earnings guidance upgrades and proactive capital allocation strategies, including share buybacks and dividend increases. The company’s ability to sustain its market leadership amidst a broader semiconductor rally has propelled its valuation to historic levels, reflecting strong investor confidence in its AI infrastructure dominance. While market analysts are debating long-term price targets, the consensus remains that NVDA’s structural growth trajectory in the data center and accelerated computing segments remains intact, justifying a “hold” or “accumulate” stance for long-term portfolios.

AMD is currently experiencing a structural growth phase driven by the rapid expansion of its Data Center segment, which reported a significant 57% revenue surge. The successful rollout of the Instinct MI350P series reinforces the company’s competitive positioning against industry incumbents in the high-performance AI accelerator market. Furthermore, the potential diversification of its foundry strategy toward Samsung’s 2nm GAA (Gate-All-Around) process represents a strategic move to mitigate supply chain risks and enhance manufacturing efficiency, effectively challenging TSMC’s dominance. As Agentic AI gains momentum, AMD is well-positioned to lead the “CPU Renaissance,” capitalizing on both hardware performance and strategic manufacturing partnerships to sustain its upward earnings trajectory.

Broadcom (AVGO) continues to demonstrate robust fundamental momentum, primarily driven by its dominant position in the AI infrastructure market. While the stock has experienced significant appreciation over the past year, the recent disclosure that AI chip revenue has doubled year-over-year provides a strong catalyst for sustained growth. Management’s ambitious revenue target of $100 billion by 2027 underscores the company’s successful integration of VMware and its strategic pivot toward high-growth custom silicon and networking solutions. Despite short-term price volatility, the long-term outlook remains supported by secular tailwinds in data center expansion and enterprise software scalability.

Arm Holdings is currently facing a critical juncture as market expectations for its AI-driven growth collide with cooling sentiment regarding its core mobile segment. While the company has successfully positioned itself as a foundational player in the AGI CPU ecosystem through strategic partnerships with firms like Siemens, the recent 6.7% decline underscores investor anxiety over guidance and slowing revenue momentum in its legacy markets. Furthermore, Arm’s reported pivot toward developing and selling its own AI chips introduces significant execution risk; by shifting from an IP-licensing model to direct competition with major partners like Nvidia, Arm risks alienating its primary customer base and disrupting its high-margin business model. Investors should remain cautious until the company demonstrates that its new hardware initiatives can offset the deceleration in its core licensing business.

ASML is strategically scaling its EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography capacity by 36% this year to address the critical supply bottleneck in the AI semiconductor market. As the sole provider of high-NA EUV systems, ASML remains the “super- 을” (indispensable supplier) in the global chip supply chain. The surge in demand from major tech players and memory giants like SK Hynix underscores the company’s pricing power and long-term revenue visibility. Furthermore, the expansion into hybrid bonding technology suggests a move toward integrated packaging solutions, which will likely solidify its competitive moat as Moore’s Law faces physical scaling limits.